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REcap: Baker Tilly's award-winning commercial real estate market report
Nov. 6, 2025
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Resource
Nov. 6, 2025
Our award-winning quarterly commercial real estate market report, REcap, is designed to help real estate owners, developers, investors, and professionals understand market performance and current trends — providing valuable insights to support future planning.
New | Third quarter 2025
Equity and real estate markets are showing strength despite economic uncertainty and elevated inflation. Commercial real estate activity is rising, driven by rate cuts and limited new development. While momentum is building, inflation and potential shocks could impact the outlook for late 2025.
Each report is designed to provide readers with a recap of the quarter as it relates to notable transaction activity, data and analytics in key real estate sectors across the United States, including but not limited to multifamily housing, office, retail, industrial and capital markets.
Todd Carpenter, Managing Principal of Development and Community AdvisoryThere are a number of indicators that impact how owners, developers and investors assess what's happening in the real estate market. Our report compiles multiple data points to help readers stay up to date on what's currently going on.
REcap | Second quarter 2025
Markets continue to be reflective of delaying decisions and searching for certainty. The passing of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act should provide some certainty; however, constantly fluctuating trade policies and geopolitical concerns continue to be issues impacting commercial real estate.
REcap | First quarter 2025
The first quarter of 2025 showed momentum in commercial real estate transactions and fundraising, with stabilized or recovering cap rates and valuations, despite lukewarm debt capital markets. However, the volatility in U.S. and global equity markets early in the second quarter, driven by U.S. tariff policies, has created uncertainty for the Fed and investors regarding interest rates. Despite shaken confidence, a long-term view on fundamentals suggests strategic investment in commercial real estate remains promising.
Mike Kamienski, National Real Estate Practice Leader"This report outlines transactional activity including all real estate classes and gives our readers the information they need to go out and do what they do best: invest in real estate."
With election uncertainty in the rearview and economic data trending favorably, 2025 should be a year of growth and renewed real estate activity. The new administration has promised changes, and it will remain to be seen what potential tariffs and policy changes could mean for the economy overall and commercial real estate specifically.
On the heels of the recent Fed rate cut, the major stock market indices have trended upwards and the latest job numbers were surprisingly strong with the unemployment rate reversing recent trends and decreasing. The U.S. economy has continued to remain extremely resilient but headwinds and threats in commercial real estate remain present.
With key economic indicators appearing to be favorable, commercial real estate transaction activity remains stagnant. This may be driven by a reluctance to strike deals when it appears more probable than in recent memory that the interest rate environment will be improving sooner rather than later.
Several large transactions were announced in the first quarter of the year, with more prognosticators optimistic for more transaction volume in 2024 both at the property level and fueled by entity deals.
Transaction activity remained extremely depressed in the fourth quarter of 2023, while most sectors saw some fundamental deterioration and valuations decreased broadly.
The real estate markets remained stagnant in the third quarter with low transaction volumes amid continuing debt concerns and operational pressures. Significant cost pressures were impacting most sectors with insurance and property taxes being primary culprits.
Much of what could be said in the first quarter of 2023 still applies in the second quarter, with languid transaction activity and uncertainty being the primary hallmarks. Commercial real estate was generally sideways this quarter as activity remained depressed and confidence in fundamentals seemingly down.
The first quarter of 2023 saw some commercial real estate trends stick around from the end of last year, with transaction activity slowing further and inflation showing signs of easing.
2022 closed on a sour note for the commercial real estate industry, with some mildly encouraging macroeconomic news being more than offset by a lackluster transaction environment and a negative short-term outlook that was fueled by a challenging capital markets environment.
Commercial real estate transaction activity delivered on the promise of decreased activity that we observed last quarter with transactions decreasing significantly across asset classes.
The Q2 2022 Commercial Real Estate Market Report provides analysis, insight and outlook into the multifamily housing, office, retail, industrial and capital market sectors.
The Q1 2022 Commercial Real Estate Market Report provides analysis, insight and outlook into the multifamily housing, office, retail, industrial and capital market industries.
Read the fourth quarter of 2021’s real estate market trends, transactions, analysis and outlook as you prepare for the year ahead.
The third quarter of 2021 was prosperous for commercial real estate, finally surpassing 2019 activity levels with a notable increase in multifamily housing deals.
Access the second quarter of 2021’s real estate market trends, transactions, analysis and outlook as you prepare for third quarter.
Understand Q1 2021 real estate market trends, transactions, analysis and outlook to prepare yourself for your next investment.
The final quarter real estate market report of 2020 including a deep dive into the multifamily housing, office, retail, industrial, and capital market sectors.
A Q3 2020 commercial real estate market report for the multifamily housing, office, retail, industrial, senior housing and capital markets sectors.
A Commercial Real Estate Market Report for Q2 2020, providing analysis and trends in multifamily housing, office, retail, industrial, hospitality and capital markets sectors.
Award-winning report
The Content Marketing Institute (CMI) recently honored Baker Tilly with a 2025 Content Marketing Award in the “Best Use of White Paper (One or a Series)” category for our REcap report. The Content Marketing Awards, presented annually by CMI, are the largest and longest-running international program recognizing excellence in content creation, distribution and innovation.
