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Q-factors and forecasting for complex entities - your questions answered

Sep 21, 2022 · Authored by Ivan Cilik, Matt J. Nitka

During our latest CECL Tuesday talk-through we answered submitted questions on Q-factors and forecasting for complex entities. This informative article reviews the questions we answered in our session.

Key takeaways:

  • Complexity of forecasting should be consistent with complexity of method​
  • Incorporate forecasts that are most impactful to your institution and operating footprint​
  • Quantify the qualitative using min and max thresholds ​

Key takeaways:

  • Don’t need to be “boxed” into previous 9 factors, use what impacts your portfolio the most​
  • Keep in mind what Q factors may be incorporated into your forecasts (changes in economic factors, delinquencies, etc.) to avoid double counting​
  • Understand how your market compared to national metrics ​

Key takeaways:

  • Understand what metrics are impacting your future loss assumptions​
  • Understand how changes in your forecast impact your CECL estimate (i.e. stress-test!)​

Key takeaways:

  • Q-factors make up a significant portion of overall CECL estimate for a large quantity of entities, but not all. ​
  • Changes in q-factors are key factor in volatility of the CECL estimate ​
  • Can you support and document why your Q-factors make up a large percentage of CECL? ​

Key takeaways:

  • Can be determined in a quantifiable way, but doesn’t mean it has to be (i.e. unemployment)​
  • Look at what caused large loss events to identify triggers​
  • Not all economic metrics impact every institution. Some portfolios are more correlated to certain metrics than others. ​

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